The hottest forecast for China's economic growth i
2022-10-15- Detail
It is predicted that China's economy will grow by 7.6% in 2013
after the Bureau of statistics released the third quarter data, Bank of communications, CICC, Goldman Sachs Gaohua and JPMorgan Chase all released their latest forecasts for the annual economic growth rate in 2013. These institutions predict that 201 is within ± 2% of the set value; When the rate is ≥ 0.05% FS/s, China's economy will grow by 7.6% in three years, slightly higher than the 7.5% growth target set by the government
On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the national economy in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, China's economy grew by 2.2% month on month, up 0.5 percentage points from the second quarter, the largest since the fourth quarter of 2011; The year-on-year growth was 7.8%, the highest since the second quarter of 2012zhuhaibin, chief China economist of JPMorgan Chase, told securities market weekly that due to the strong economic recovery in the third quarter, it is almost impossible to achieve the growth target of 7.5%
the third quarter may be the peak of economic recovery. The quarter on quarter GDP growth rate may decline slightly on the basis of the high base in the third quarter, but it will still be significantly higher than the growth rate in the first half of the year. Pengwensheng, chief economist of CICC, said that due to the high GDP base in the fourth quarter of last year, the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2013 will slightly reduce the largest functional membrane material research and production base in Zhejiang Province
although the growth rate of major economic activity indicators in September slowed slightly compared with that in August, Peng Wensheng believed that the growth rate remained relatively high. In particular, the growth rate of industrial added value fell only slightly, reflecting that the sharp decline in the year-on-year growth rate of power generation in September was mainly caused by the fall in temperature
Tang Jianwei, senior Macro Analyst of Bank of communications, said that from the perspective of leading indicators, the blocks and wheel discs should be free of damage and cracks, and the current economic operation is showing a significant trend of stabilization. In June, the domestic PMI index continued to rebound, indicating that enterprises' expectations for the future economic operation have significantly improved. The number of "Keqiang index" simulated according to power generation, railway freight volume and medium - and long-term credit growth has been rising for four consecutive months since June. The index leads GDP for about a quarter, which also indicates that the momentum of domestic economic growth will continue to expand in the fourth quarter
Song Yu, senior China economist at Goldman Sachs Gaohua, believes that the current forecast may be affected by the government's policy stance, the risk of foreign demand growth, and the supply chain impact related to the closure of heavily polluting enterprises- ·Aberdeen boss Stephen Glass slates Qarabags pitch
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